16 Nisan 2009 Perşembe

Brief Market Update from Mike Morgan

I realize it has been about a week since I shared any of our client posts or trades, but I have simply been swamped with work and my clients come first. But here is what we did today. Our concern today was to trade below 850 and look for any close below 840 as a sign we will head lower. Ideally a close below 836 (10 Day MA) or 828 (100 Day MA) would be a big positive, but this market is chugging along lately in a channel and bouncing off the lower trend lines. However, the wedge is tightening, and we believe all signals indicate we move significantly lower from her for the next 4-8 weeks. So I will cut this email short in order to get this out before today's market close. By the way, I advised my clients this morning to use a trade to 845 to short. We saw that earlier, and then again for the retail lunch crowd. Now we are bumping up against it now for the 30 minute rush to the finish line. It's anybody's guess at this point, but absent a move higher above 853, I am still bearish on the overall market.

One final note. The builders and REITs rallied. That's encouraging when you have two week links rallying at the end of a rally. It's also interesting that Goldman Sachs upgraded several of them today.

Here are the positions we recommended shorting today:

TOL in here at $18.67 – Toll Brothers

We are still short quite a few other builders. And for REITS, it is time to short:

WRI at $13.30 - Weingarten

FRT at $52.00 - Federal

RPT at $8.82 - RAMCO

EQY at $13.66 – Equity One

SKT at $32.35 - Tanger

SPG at $41.34 – Simon - up big today on nonsensical chatter this morning from and "expert" that said they are protected from this firestorm.

MAC at $11.75 - Macerich

ADC at $16.70 – Agree Realty

KIM at $9.40 – KIMCO

PLD at $7.60 – Prologis

And a couple of financials.

AXP at $19.25 – American Express

AXPSF at $10.90. - July 30 PUT

WFC at $18.60 – Wells Fargo

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