March 27, 2009 2:00 am

Apartment Update

Last night was the first of our biannual conference calls regarding the apartment complex in Houston. The managers gave us a general overview of the Houston economy and then of the property itself.

Nationwide, occupancy rates are easing and rent growth is cooling. The Houston market is also expected to cool, although not as much as the rest of the nation. There are many new A-class (higher end) apartments just opening up and they will be the hardest hit with pressure to lower rents. B-class apartments, like the one we have, won’t feel the pressure so much. There will also be some pressure from the “shadow market” - the single family home foreclosures and other houses that investors and buying and turning into rentals.

The silver lining in all of this is that apartments are still a relatively good investment. An emerging trend report released last week said apartments were the number one buy for 2009.

Another positive is that Houston led the nation in apartment absorption in 2008 and led the nation in job growth in 2008 as well, with 53,400 new jobs and continues to led in this category.

Rents per square foot are trending upward. Historical occupancy rates for Houston were about 89% for 2008. We were well above that. Here is a chart I snagged from the presentation showing occupancy rates for all of the Houston area, the Westgate area (which is a small section of Houston where our apartment is located), and the occupancy rates for our building since we took ownership. The greenish-yellow line is our building.

It looks like the selection of Houston as a place to invest in was a wise decision by the managers of this investment.

Specifically related to our apartment:

When we purchased the property, we had planned on installing a playground area. We since discovered there are not many children in the development, so we will be making seating areas for reading and picnics instead. The majority of the repair work from the hurricane damage is done. Over half of the costs will be repaid from a repair impound account our bank makes us pay into each month, so cash flow will not be affected much.

The projected cash flow when we were evaluating the property for the period of July to December 2008 was 1,000. Our actual cashflow, adjusted for the hurricane damage costs, was 8,000. Our current ROI is 9.9%. Looking forward one year, management has given us three scenarios, based on how revenue trends. If it stays flat, our ROI will be 9.6%. If it rises by a nominal 2%, it will be 9.85%. If it rises by a moderate 5%, it will be 11.1%. Management’s best guess is that revenue rise will be somewhere between 2% and 5%.

We also received a one month profit distribution (instead of the normal quarterly one) to sync up the distributions to a calendar quarter basis going forward.

Keep in mind, the goal of this investment is to increase the value of the apartments by increasing occupancy, raising rates, increasing cash flow, and then sell it after a few years for a profit. We are shooting for an annualized 13% ROI when we sell. So while a 9+% ROI is decent for an operating return, we are really looking to make money in the future.

March 27, 2009 2:00 am

General Update

Well, the holidays are over and things are settling back down to a normal routine.

I received another on-time payment on Hard Money loan #4.

I received another quarterly profit distribution for the apartment complex in Houston. Again, the distribution worked out to our preferred 9% annual ROI. After five months of rising, the occupancy rate dropped, but only by one percent back down to a more normal 96%. I knew the 97% rate from last month wouldn’t last too long. (Marketing and retention expenses dropped by about 20% from last month, which may explain the drop in occupancy.) Repairs from Hurricane Ike are wrapping up. Return on equity for the property this quarter is currently at 8.7%, but excluding the cost of repairs from the hurricane, it would have been 10.9%. Next month will see a one-month profit disbursement to sync us up with a calendar-quarter payment basis in the future.There is a bi-annual investor conference call scheduled for the end of this month that will provide investors with an overview of how things are going so far and what the outlook is for the next year.

I almost got hired at a local real estate investment trust company. I made it to the final three applicants, but the company ended up choosing someone else. Too bad. This REIT specializes in commercial real estate and they have over billion in properties under management. I could have learned a lot from them.

Work on my ebook has stalled. Actually, I am done with it, but my wife is working as the editor and she hasn’t had time to work on it lately. Hopefully, that project can get moving again soon.

March 27, 2009 2:00 am

Obama and Liddy are Liars - Dirty Rotten Liars

The Thinking Man’s Guide to Populist Rage - That’s the headline on the cover of Newsweek this week featuring an angry mob.

Rage? For those that think I am Chicken Little, this is a major media outlet using the word RAGE to describe how the populist feels. Pick up this issue of Newsweek. There is only so much I can talk about new on our conference calls. I try to dig where no one else is digging, and I try to look at the global picture. I started talking about Madagascar two months ago. No the government has fallen. I realize this is just an island of the coast of Africa, but it seems like a good barometer of things to come for me. The police and military finally said . . . we will not pick up our weapons against the citizens.

I’ve been talking about Ireland for a year. For the past few months I have been telling you how Hungary is a zombie, and Austria is Hungary’s unfortunate banker. This week Hungary’s President walked off the job. Germany and France are experiencing protests. Spain is a total basket case. Italy still doesn’t understand what’s going on, but what do you expect when a con-man is running the country. This brings me right back to the good old USA. I still believe we will see widespread violence by the end of August. Newsweek kinda confirmed what I’ve been spouting off about.

AIG Final Word - Goldman Sachs created the crap that they sold to the world and then showed the boys and girls at AIG how to write bets on. Goldman Sachs was the biggest buyer of these one-way bets. They knew they were going to get paid off, because they created the crap and they created the game to insure the crap. So who did we turn to when it was time to bail out AIG . . . the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and a dozen of his cronies . . . along with Tim the Tax Cheat as the head of the NY Fed.

So the final word is this. I am totally sick of hearing what a nice guy Ed Liddy is, and he’s doing this for , and he has no stake in this, and he is totally unbiased, and he only has the interests of the American people at heart. Do you really believe the crap about Ed Liddy coming out of retirement to work for free to turn things around at AIG? Do you really, deep down believe that? If you do, you are a Putz with a capital P.

Ed Liddy was a Goldman Sachs Director right up until the day he resigned last September!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do you think King Henry picked him? Why do you think Liddy is working for “free” . . . at least on the surface? Ed Liddy and the guys that appointed him . . . King Henry, Tim the Tax Cheat and Carney Frank should go to jail for this one. So why isn’t anyone talking about this? Because the boys and girls on CNBC and CNN and Fox all bow down to Goldman Sachs.

Who has received twice as much AIG money as any other entity in the entire world . . . Goldman Sachs. What company received the most direct bail out money . . . in fact, five times more than any other company? The numbers are staggering and the dirty money trail all flows from and to Goldman Sachs.

If you want to save this country, let’s start by shutting down Goldman Sachs and rounding up the bums.

Market Update - As far as the market goes today. No surprises. We have been watching since last week. I still like the positions in our portfolio, but for clients, please consult with me first. Tim the Tax Cheat’s scheme will not work. The market knows it, but the boys and girls in charge of OPM (Other Peoples’ Money) needed one more huge shot to rack up obnoxious fees from skimming and skinning the fiduciary money as it moves in and out, back and forth.

What Makes Me Truly Sick - Hearing Maria Bartiromo’s whiny voice squealing and qvetching. Watching the Monkey Boy jump around and bang on buttons while he is destroying lives. Hearing the cranky, feminine whine of Larry Kudlow as he squawks about mustard sees and free markets. Strike that, as he gave up on the free market mantra once his buddy King Henry did away with free markets. And you know what else makes me really sick . . . seeing crackpots like Suzie Orman, Dave Ramsy and Ali Velshi talk to the average American . . . and totally screw them up with nonsense and spin. One final thing that really ticks me off is hearing guys like Bill Gross, Paul McCulley and Mohamed El-Irian of PIMPCO tell us on TV what we need to do, while they know full well Washington is watching . . . and then pimping Washington into doing what they have been preaching, because they have consumer all worked up on TV . . . but they are the guys at the other end of the trade. I could actually go on with this for about 1,000 pages if I started talking about Congressman, Senators, Obama and Bush team members, Sheila Bair, Chris Cox and dozens of CEOs that have sold this country down the drain. And there is NO recovery. Get that out of your mind. We will be on a 20+ year slide. Sure there will be blips like yesterday and the last 10 days, but these men and women belong in jail. Instead, they are living the life of luxury at our expense. What are YOU going to tell your children and grandchildren about these days and what’s to come?

Ed Liddy’s a fraud, and he should be exposed as a fraud and thrown in jail along with Carney Frank and Chris Dodd. I yield one minute to the Congressman from Texas who is just about the only one that could at least make this all less painful.

ObamaRamaLama #114 - Tonight at 8PM Eastern our clueless President will be on TV . . . again. I’m sick of this. What does he think . . . he can hypnotize us? The only people that still believe his dribble are the totally uneducated people that eat worms and live in caves. Guess what? Those folks don’t watch TV. Give it up already. He’s been on TV about 3-4 times a day, every day, somewhere . . . and at this point he is embarrassing himself and the Office of the President of the United States. The man believes he can talk us out of this. He’s the last person that can talk us out of anything. Our President is a liar and to drive that point home, I remind you that he is the same man that said he sat in church for 20 years and never . . . I repeat, NEVER, heard any of this fiery, anti-US, anti-white rhetoric from his pastor . . . http://www.morgan7.com/reverend_wright_obama

The fact that he lied, and he lied about church, is something I have never been able to square. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but now I have just given up. He’s the worst thing that could have happened to us, because he does not know what he’s doing, so he’s allowing Wall Street to drive Main Street into the mud.

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March 27, 2009 2:00 am

Obama and Liddy - Liars, Dirty Rotten Liars

Wednesday's Conference Call - I am going to have to cancel out conference call set for 9:10AM tomorrow. I think we will be find, and I am not making any decision based on today's trading. If something develops during the day, I will set up a special conference call. Otherwise, let's wait and see what happens overnight in Asia, Europe and pre-market. I will put out at least one email update tomorrow.

The Thinking Man's Guide to Populist Rage - That's the headline on the cover of Newsweek this week featuring an angry mob.

Rage? For those that think I am Chicken Little, this is a major media outlet using the word RAGE to describe how the populist feels. Pick up this issue of Newsweek. There is only so much I can talk about new on our conference calls. I try to dig where no one else is digging, and I try to look at the global picture. I started talking about Madagascar two months ago. No the government has fallen. I realize this is just an island of the coast of Africa, but it seems like a good barometer of things to come for me. The police and military finally said . . . we will not pick up our weapons against the citizens.

I've been talking about Ireland for a year. For the past few months I have been telling you how Hungary is a zombie, and Austria is Hungary's unfortunate banker. This week Hungary's President walked off the job. Germany and France are experiencing protests. Spain is a total basket case. Italy still doesn't understand what's going on, but what do you expect when a con-man is running the country. This brings me right back to the good old USA. I still believe we will see widespread violence by the end of August. Newsweek kinda confirmed what I've been spouting off about.

AIG Final Word – Goldman Sachs created the crap that they sold to the world and then showed the boys and girls at AIG how to write bets on. Goldman Sachs was the biggest buyer of these one-way bets. They knew they were going to get paid off, because they created the crap and they created the game to insure the crap. So who did we turn to when it was time to bail out AIG . . . the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and a dozen of his cronies . . . along with Tim the Tax Cheat as the head of the NY Fed.

So the final word is this. I am totally sick of hearing what a nice guy Ed Liddy is, and he's doing this for , and he has no stake in this, and he is totally unbiased, and he only has the interests of the American people at heart. Do you really believe the crap about Ed Liddy coming out of retirement to work for free to turn things around at AIG? Do you really, deep down believe that? If you do, you are a Putz with a capital P.

Ed Liddy was a Goldman Sachs Director right up until the day he resigned last September!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do you think King Henry picked him? Why do you think Liddy is working for "free" . . . at least on the surface? Ed Liddy and the guys that appointed him . . . King Henry, Tim the Tax Cheat and Carney Frank should go to jail for this one. So why isn't anyone talking about this? Because the boys and girls on CNBC and CNN and Fox all bow down to Goldman Sachs.

Who has received twice as much AIG money as any other entity in the entire world . . . Goldman Sachs. What company received the most direct bail out money . . . in fact, five times more than any other company? The numbers are staggering and the dirty money trail all flows from and to Goldman Sachs.

If you want to save this country, let's start by shutting down Goldman Sachs and rounding up the bums.

Market Update - As far as the market goes today. No surprises. We have been watching since last week. I still like the positions in our portfolio, but for clients, please consult with me first. Tim the Tax Cheat's scheme will not work. The market knows it, but the boys and girls in charge of OPM (Other Peoples' Money) needed one more huge shot to rack up obnoxious fees from skimming and skinning the fiduciary money as it moves in and out, back and forth.

What Makes Me Truly Sick – Hearing Maria Bartiromo's whiny voice squealing and qvetching. Watching the Monkey Boy jump around and bang on buttons while he is destroying lives. Hearing the cranky, feminine whine of Larry Kudlow as he squawks about mustard sees and free markets. Strike that, as he gave up on the free market mantra once his buddy King Henry did away with free markets. And you know what else makes me really sick . . . seeing crackpots like Suzie Orman, Dave Ramsy and Ali Velshi talk to the average American . . . and totally screw them up with nonsense and spin. One final thing that really ticks me off is hearing guys like Bill Gross, Paul McCulley and Mohamed El-Irian of PIMPCO tell us on TV what we need to do, while they know full well Washington is watching . . . and then pimping Washington into doing what they have been preaching, because they have consumer all worked up on TV . . . but they are the guys at the other end of the trade. I could actually go on with this for about 1,000 pages if I started talking about Congressman, Senators, Obama and Bush team members, Sheila Bair, Chris Cox and dozens of CEOs that have sold this country down the drain. And there is NO recovery. Get that out of your mind. We will be on a 20+ year slide. Sure there will be blips like yesterday and the last 10 days, but these men and women belong in jail. Instead, they are living the life of luxury at our expense.

What are YOU going to tell your children and grandchildren about these days and what's to come?

Ed Liddy's a fraud, and he should be exposed as a fraud and thrown in jail along with Carney Frank and Chris Dodd. I yield one minute to the Congressman from Texas who is just about the only one that could at least make this all less painful.

ObamaRamaLama #114 – Tonight at 8PM Eastern our clueless President will be on TV . . . again. I'm sick of this. What does he think . . . he can hypnotize us? The only people that still believe his dribble are the totally uneducated people that eat worms and live in caves. Guess what? Those folks don't watch TV. Give it up already. He's been on TV about 3-4 times a day, every day, somewhere . . . and at this point he is embarrassing himself and the Office of the President of the United States. The man believes he can talk us out of this. He's the last person that can talk us out of anything. Our President is a liar and to drive that point home, I remind you that he is the same man that said he sat in church for 20 years and never . . . I repeat, NEVER, heard any of this fiery, anti-US, anti-white rhetoric from his pastor . . . http://www.morgan7.com/reverend_wright_obama

The fact that he lied, and he lied about church, is something I have never been able to square. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but now I have just given up. He's the worst thing that could have happened to us, because he does not know what he's doing, so he's allowing Wall Street to drive Main Street into the mud.