29 Temmuz 2009 Çarşamba

Today Post::Stanley Fish and Chris Rock make the same point

Fish writes about Henry Louis Gates’ time at Duke:

I flashed back 20 years or so to the time when Gates arrived in Durham, N.C., to take up the position I had offered him in my capacity as chairman of the English department of Duke University. One of the first things Gates did was buy the grandest house in town (owned previously by a movie director) and renovate it. During the renovation workers would often take Gates for a servant and ask to be pointed to the house's owner. The drivers of delivery trucks made the same mistake.

The message was unmistakable: What was a black man doing living in a place like this?

At the university (which in a past not distant at all did not admit African-Americans ), Gates's reception was in some ways no different. Doubts were expressed in letters written by senior professors about his scholarly credentials, which were vastly superior to those of his detractors. (He was already a recipient of a MacArthur fellowship, the so called "genius award.") There were wild speculations (again in print) about his salary, which in fact was quite respectable but not inordinate; when a list of the highest-paid members of the Duke faculty was published, he was nowhere on it.

The unkindest cut of all was delivered by some members of the black faculty who had made their peace with Duke traditions and did not want an over-visible newcomer and upstart to trouble waters that had long been still. (The great historian John Hope Franklin was an exception.) When an offer came from Harvard, there wasn't much I could do. Gates accepted it, and when he left he was pursued by false reports about his tenure at what he had come to call "the plantation." (I became aware of his feelings when he and I and his father watched the N.C.A.A. championship game between Duke and U.N.L.V. at my house; they were rooting for U.N.L.V.)

And now Chris Rock:

I will give you an example of how race affects my life. I live in a place called Alpine, New Jersey. Live in Alpine, New Jersey, right? My house costs millions of dollars. [some whistles and cheers from the audience] Don’t hate the player, hate the game. In my neighborhood, there are four black people. Hundreds of houses, four black people. Who are these black people? Well, there’s me, Mary J. Blige, Jay-Z and Eddie Murphy. Only black people in the whole neighborhood. So let’s break it down, let’s break it down: me, I’m a decent comedian. I’m a’ight. [applause] Mary J. Blige, one of the greatest R&B singers to ever walk the Earth. Jay-Z, one of the greatest rappers to ever live. Eddie Murphy, one of the funniest actors to ever, ever do it. Do you know what the white man who lives next door to me does for a living? He’s a f**king dentist! He ain’t the best dentist in the world…he ain’t going ! to the dental hall of fame…he don’t get plaques for getting rid of plaque. He’s just a yank-your-tooth-out dentist. See, the black man gotta fly to get to somethin’ the white man can walk to.

Today Post::Featured on today's USC Home Page

A story on Dr. Patricia Harris, who makes house calls.

Today Post::Blogging in the Here and Now

I'm spending the rest of the summer in France and I have to say that this stay will be a well earned respite.

Although I've been here many times (… the wife's maternal homeland), I'm still awestruck by the sheer mass of stone and iron that is Paris and also, from what appears to an Americans eye, the simply tremendous investment made in the more typical structures in the countryside.

It seems the French have never known clapboard on wood frame construction or ever met a single asphalt shingle.

Each and every home and building seems as though it had been either painstakingly carved into place or, for the half-timbered medieval towns and other olden relics, assembled by the ancients and then meticulously preserved ever since.

This obviously all comes at great cost but the quality of the product is without question.

So this has me wondering…

Clearly, we think shorter term in the United States.

Why invest in a slate roof for a home you may only intend on living in for 5 years? Why build a stone foundation when cement is cheaper and simpler to install and maintain?

This is just simple sensible cost-benefit analysis and it appears that in France they have no notion of it.

Of course, this is not exactly a fair comparison as I'm talking about two totally different societies.

Americans clearly put a practical priority on immediate "return on investment" as well as a higher value on mobility, both geographic and social.

It's an "aspirational" process whereby the thoughts of our own "American Dream" form the basis for our actions in the here and now… always a step away from a move to a better job, a better home, a better area… better days.

Possibly the French are not as concerned… they appear to simply live in the here and now.

My wife reminds me that even in Paris, many boutiques are closed for two hours a noontime.

I noticed a sign in the window of a brasserie declaring that the proprietor is away but will return to reopen the establishment in late August.

No doubt the actual output of the French economy is below potential.

But… you only live once!

Today Post::New Home Sales: June 2009

Subtitle: More Green Shoots… Still No Bottom

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for June showing the third consecutive increase in sales of newly constructed single family dwellings bringing the seasonally adjusted annual sales pace to 384,000 units or just slightly under the level seen in November 2008.

Still, demand for new homes appears to be weak falling 21.31% from last year and remaining 72.35% below the peak level 2005.

Further, although today's release showed a continued reduction in inventory and a monthly and 8.8 months of supply, the median months for sale reached a peak value of 11.8 (more on this later).

The following charts show the extent of sales declines seen since 2005 as well as illustrating how the further declines in 2009 are coming on top of the 2006, 2007 and 2008 results (click for larger versions)


It's important to note that although the new home sales data appears to have prompted the traditional media to make many "bottom calls" recently, the evidence for their conclusions were scant.

First, most "bottom callers" have focused too closely on just the new home sales series and its historic bottoms rather than other important indicators that disclose a more complete state of the new home market.

As I have argued recently, the level of inventory and supply and level of completed new homes are still too high for a real sustained bottom for the new home market.

The following chart (click for larger) plots the new home sales (SAAR) series along with the current inventory level (NA) and the level of homes completed (NA) since 1973.

As you can see, although the new home sales series has breached the lowest level in over 30 years, the level of inventory (homes for sale at end of period) still remains higher than past historic bottoms and the level of homes completed remains much higher.

In fact, the level of completed new homes remains WELL ABOVE the PEAK levels for past housing boom periods… a truly bad sign for pricing going forward.

Make no mistake, I'm not suggesting that these three series will all bottom simultaneously, a simple cursory review of the chart above will dispel that notion, BUT I believe that if you consider the downward trend in home prices, the state of the job market, the lack of credit availability as well as the extent of the former boom (just look at the run builders had above.. steadily increasing sales from January 1991 to July 2005… truly unparalleled!) any sustained bottom is still a long way off.

The new home market might be in the process of clearing but at the moment it still looks seriously impaired and of the steadily shrinking pool of prospective buyers (from lack of confidence, lack of job or lack of cash and credit availability) those who wait to buy will almost certainly continue to find better pricing…. Thus sales will continue to fall.

Look at the following summary of today's report:

National

  • The median sales price for a new home declined 11.99% as compared to June 2008.
  • New home sales were down 23.3% as compared to June 2008.
  • The inventory of new homes for sale declined 35.6% as compared to June 2008.
  • The number of months' supply of the new homes has decreased 17.8% as compared to June 2008 and now stands at 8.8 months.

Regional

  • In the Northeast, new home sales were down 11.4% as compared to June 2008.
  • In the Midwest, new home sales were up 5.8% as compared to June 2008.
  • In the South, new home sales were down 34.4% as compared to June 2008.
  • In the West, new home sales were down 9.6% as compared to June 2008.

Today Post::Beantown Bust: Boston CSI and RPX May 2009

Subtitle: Now Comes … the Fall!

The S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) Home Price index together with the Radar Logic (RPX) for Boston represent the most accurate indicators of the true price movement for both single family homes and the entire residential real estate market as a whole (singles, multi and condos).

For May, both the CSI and RPX continued to showed the typical spring bounce in price movement with a month-to-month increase of 1.58% to the CSI and a 4.12% gain on the RPX while on a year-over-year basis the CSI declined 7.22% while the RPX dropped 12.02% over the same period.

Further, both reports indicate that area home prices have suffered significant peak declines with the Boston CSI showing a decline of 18.46% since the peak set in September 2005 while the Boston RPX shows a 26.36% price decline since its peak of June 2005.

It's important to note that while the spring bounce is continuing in the data, the data is two months old.

This means that currently, we are likely at the seasonal peak for pricing for 2009 and soon the overarching declining trend will resume.

Typically, prices will reach the peak in June and remain close to peak (over or under) for July but as August nears (when the typical 45 day schedule puts closings beyond the start of the school year as well as just general vacation activity impact house buying activity) so too does slumping pricing and a resumption of the overarching declining trend.

In all likeliness, this year will be no different.

Looking at the seasonally adjusted data it's easy to see that Boston is far from any real change in the overall declining trend though interestingly, the low and mid tiers showed a notable bounce (non-seasonally adjusted) in May while the high tier appears to be continuing its decline.

Click on the following ultra-cool zoom-able dynamic chart showing the three seaonally adjusted price tiers S&P provides for Boston as well as the 12 month moving average of the Boston area “sale pair counts” a near-organic single family home sales series also provided by S&P.

The most obvious difference between the 90s housing bust and today is that during the 90s the home price decline occurred mostly in-line with the larger macroeconomic decline.

Today though, all of the home price decline seen prior to mid-2008 occurred within a backdrop of an (more or less) expanding economy.

Now that the economy, particularly the jobs market, has firmly taken a turn for the worse (particularly our local Boston area economy), home prices will likely suffer to the greatest degree seen in this cycle.

The following two charts compares the Boston CSI to the Massachusetts unemployment rate during the 90s bust and today.

Notice how early we are in the unemployment cycle today… there is lots more pain to go.


Recently S&P introduced a new line of data series that specifically track condominium prices in five select markets including Boston which showed that in May Boston condo prices declined 5.83% on a year-over-year basis and 14.07% on a peak decline basis (see chart below).

In all likelihood the still low consumer confidence and substantial increases in unemployment will work to place significant downward pressure on property prices, particularly condo prices, for the foreseeable future.

As you can see from the chart below (click for larger), although the RPX captures a greater degree of seasonality, both series are very strongly correlated.

To better illustrate the drop-off in home prices and the potential length and depth of the current housing decline, I have compared BOTH the normalized price movement, annual and peak percentage changes to the Boston CSI home price index from the 80s-90s housing bust to today's bust.

Notice that with today's release, Boston has now exceeded the number of months of annual declines seen in the 90s bust as well as fallen further on a peak percentage basis.



The "normalized" chart compares the normalized Boston price index from the peak of the 80s-90s bust to the peak of today's bust.

Notice that during the 80s-90s bust prices took roughly 46 months (3.8 years) to bottom out.

The "annual" chart compares the percentage change, on a year-over-year basis, to the Boston CSI from the last positive value through the decline to the first positive value at the end of the decline.

In this way, this chart captures only the months that showed monthly "annual declines".

The "peak" chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly Boston index values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As you can see the last downturn lasted 105 months (almost 9 years) peak to peak including 34 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn.

The final chart shows that the Boston housing market has been, in a sense, declining steadily since early 2001 when annual home price appreciation peaked and the intensity of the housing expansion began to wane (click on following chart for larger version).

It appears that that the main thrust of the housing expansion occurred "in-line" with the wider economic expansion that was fueled primarily by the dot-com bubble and that since the dot-com bust, the housing market has never been quite the same.

Today Post::A Little New York City Floor Plan Porn


SELLER: Richard O. Ullman
LOCATION: 15 Central Park West, New York City, NY
PRICE: rumored to be $55,000,000
SIZE: 5,610 square feet, 4 bedrooms 5.5 bathrooms (plus 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom staff room)
DESCRIPTION: This spectacular terraced penthouse comprising 5,600 square feet of living space including 4 exquisitely appointed bedrooms and 6.5 marble bathrooms is located in the most prestigious building on Central Park West. The! apartment features panoramic views of Central Park and the Manhattan skyline and includes high ceilings, an extraordinary layout, grand proportions, magnificent entertainment spaces, the finest of finishes and exquisite architectural details throughout.

YOUR MAMAS NOTES: Over the last several months there has been much ballyhoo, brouhaha and spilled ink over a somewhat mysterious doo-plex condo at the ritzy Robert A.M. Stern designed building at 15 Central Park West in New York City rumored to be quietly listed at an astronomical asking price above $75,000,000. Perhaps some of the children have been reading the scuttlebutt about the apartment in the New York newspapers along with Your Mama.

Here’s what’s been happening…Back in March of 2008 a wildly wealthy pharmaceutical benefits bigwig named Richard O. Ullman forked over $23,500,000 for a 5,610 square foot unit on the 18th and 19th floors of the pre-war wannabe building that in 2007 and early 2008 was the epicenter of high-priced real estate in New York City. Financial titans like Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill bought big apartments along with famous folks like Oscar winning actor Denzel Washington, NASCAR fat cat Jeff Gordon and tantric sex practitioners Sting and Trudie Styler.

Mister Ullman, who sold his company National Prescriptions Administrators in 2002 for more than half a billion bucks, never moved into the 4 bedroom and 5.5 pooper property which also includes a staff bedroom and pooper located, natch, off the service hall. It’s not, chickens, that Mister Ullman didn’t move in because he caught a case of real estate cold feet after closing on the apartment but rather that he possesses a pair of ridiculously large real estate cajones. Just months after signing on the dotted line rumors started to swirl and slip down the gossip grapevine that Mister Ullman was flipping the apartment back on to the market with an unabashed and undeniably greedy asking price more than triple what he paid for the place. The two-floor terraced unit over looking Central Park didn’t pop up on the open market but it was widely thought to be quietly available for a not s! o quiet price of $75,000,000.

If Your Mama is being honest, and we always are, it puzzles and perplexes Your Mama how Mister Ullman’s real estate agent managed to muster the jaw dropping audacity to utter such an insanely large number with a straight face to other real estate agents or prospective buyers because, you know, it makes us giggle and guffaw with aghast to even think of the steel nerve it takes to buy and flip an apartment back on the market just a few months after closing at three or four times the price paid without so much as having replaced a fixture or painted a wall. Not surprisingly, the apartment languished unloved and unwanted, a lonely suite of rooms doomed to be the ass-end of many jokes and the poster child for the sort of uncurbed, unrestrained and ravenous real estate avarice that ran rampant in Manhattan the previous few years.

After months of speculation and whispering about whether the apartment really is or is not for sale and at what bank account draining price, the dee-luxe doo-plex has finally hit the open market. While listing agent Dolly Lenz, real estate über-agent and She-Ra of the 12 Blackberries, endeavors to keep the asking price an ancient Chinese secret by marking the number as “Price Upon Request,” the tireless real estate writers at The New York Times recently revealed the asking price is believed by real estate insiders to be around $55,000,000 with, according to listing information, monthly fees of $8,600. It does not take any flicking of the well worn beads on Your Mama’s bejeweled abacus to see that although the (al! leged) asking price is far lower than it (allegedly) used to be, it is still a ballsy, brave and hair raising number considerably more than twice what Mister Ullman paid just over one year ago.

Let’s take a spin through the place to see what sort of condo Mister Ullman and Miz Lenz think is worth fifty-five million clams in a not particularly brisk market in which many of the potential buyers of trophy properties are sitting on the sidelines and keeping their purse strings tightly pulled.

After an elevator ride that does not conclude with a private landing, one passes through the front door and into a small vestibule with a coat closet on the left and a lounge and windowless powder pooper on the right. Your Mama can’t imagine what use this “lounge” might have in a private apartment but in the event there is ever a line to use the terlit there is, thankfully, plenty of space to accommodate. The vestibule leads to a large foyer with a herringbone patterned wood floors and a ceiling fixture that looks suspiciously similar to the one the super installed in the rent controlled 2-bedroom apartment on the Lower East Side of Manhattan Your Mama occupied before marrying up and moving into a downtown doo-plex with the Dr. Cooter. On the left is a sweeping staircase that rises to the private quarters and to the right a library that opens through two sets of pane-less French doors to the 1,000+ square foot terra! ce that runs the width of the lower floor of the apartment.

Straight through the foyer is the sizable 600 square foot living room which features a featureless fireplace and two more pane-less French doors that provide access to the terrace which rather dramatically hangs over Central Park and provides stellar views of the posh apartment towers that line Fifth Avenue and Central Park South. A second small vestibule separates the living room from the dining room and contains an actual closet as well as a booze closet for whetting one’s whistle. Adjacent to the dining room and also connected to the foyer by a short hall is the kitchen/breakfast/family room which, quite frankly, isn’t any bigger or more finely finished than the set up Your Mama and the Dr. Cooter have in our far less expensive crib on the West Coast. In fact, we’d bet our long bodied bitches Linda and Beverly and our sour-faced pussy Sugar that our kitchen is not only nicer than this one, but was al! so more expensive. We’re not bragging children, we’re saying that for $55,000,000 the kitchen ought to be knock down spectacular and this one just ain’t. Beyond the kitchen is the service hall and civilized sized staff suite which, to Mister A.M. Stern’s credit is actually large enough that the owner’s live-in house gurl won’t feel like she’s stuck up in a cell at the Bedford Hills Correctional Facility for Women.

The second floor is accessible by a Norma Desmond style staircase in the foyer and, for the lazy folks, by a private elevator that lifts a person from the hallway between the foyer and the kitchen up into the upper foyer. Two family bedrooms, each with a marble encrusted private pooper, face the building’s courtyard and can be seen into by anyone with eyes who happens to be living on the other side of the courtyard on an higher floor. A third bedroom, shown as a guest room on the floor plan, also offers an all marble private pooper and small closet and dressing area. A second entrance and small laundry room are tucked away near the guest room.

The master suite is comprised of an entrance hall, large bedroom with a trio of windows looking over the park, four walk-in closets, three additional closets, two marble bathrooms including one with a park view soaking tub and separate shower, and a private study/exercise room that is, the children will note, larger than the house gurl’s bedroom downstairs.

The rooms are simple white boxes with wood floors that wait patiently for the owner to hire up a smart architect and a small army of nice gay decorators to work their magic. This is all well and good because, let’s be honest, most ridiculously rich people often do a re-do on the fancy apartments they buy, but for fifty-five million smackers the lack of detail in this apartment is, well, inexcusable. For $55,000,000 Your Mama wants a meticulously and perfectly completed mansion in the sky that is not only move in ready with a paneled library but comes complete with on-call terlit attendants and a 24/7 ger-may chef to whip up box cakes and baby back ribs at a moment’s notice. But alas…

In an effort to lighten his real estate portfolio, Mister Ullman also has a 4 bedroom, 4,415 square foot, 44th floor apartment at the Trump International on Central Park West on the market with an asking price of $18,450,000. Your Mama wishes the healthcare honcho all the luck in the world selling his high-priced pads because iffin anyone were to ask us, and of course no one did, we think he’s gonna need it at these prices.

Today Post::A Tale of Seven Cities... and Some Condos

Today's S&P/Case-Shiller housing market data revealed some notable differences in the trends from one metro market to the next.

It's important to recognize that while our current national residential real estate decline is truly historic and unprecedented, a near simultaneous decline of one or more major metro markets is not.

During the 1980s/1990s boom and bust both West Coast and East Coast metro markets experienced the boom and bust cycle but while metros on the east coast, such as Boston, shook off the decline, cleared and started to climb somewhat by 1993 with the period between late 1996 and early 1997 marking the point where many markets recovered their nominal pre-bust peak levels, west coast metros generally continued to decline well into the mid-90s.

West coast metros such as San Francisco lumbered along and didn't breach their pre-bust nominal peak level until well into 1998 in-line with the wider economic boom of the dot-com era.

Today, as in the 1990s, we see significant differences from one metro market to the next the only difference this time around is both the extent of the boom and bust and the fact that this cyclical shock has touched every market, not just a select few.

In the dynamic Blytic charts below I have arranged the three price tiers as well as a 12 month simple moving average of the "sale pair counts" for each of a selection of seven of the twenty metro markets that S&P tracks.

Notice that while some markets are showing an up-trend in sales, most are still experiencing significant price declines.

Also, metros such as New York, Atlanta and Washington DC appear to only now be tipping into the level of decline seen during 2007 and 2008 in some of the bubbliest markets of Phoenix, Miami and San Francisco.

Further, notice that while the nation's major condo markets held fairly steady through 2008, they are now declining to a comparable extent to the single family markets.








Today Post::Two Great Bounces!

The following chart is a simple comparison between the big stock bounce that occurred in the wake of the DOW crash of 1929 and compares it to the bounce we are seeing today in the S&P 500 index.

The method of alignment was simple… take the first definitive up trading day off the bottom of the preceding bear market low and set that as the start of the series… then simply re-base both series to a value of 100 so they could be compared side-by-side.

Our current rally has a note of mania to it… It's almost too good to be true…

I'm not saying it's going to happen… Just keeping a watchful eye…

Today Post::Relative Quality and an Import-Export Decline

The French expect quality… or at least higher quality than I'm used to in the U.S.

A 2 euro bottle of wine picked up on impulse at the supermarche is still a tasty treat… think of that… I'm pretty sure that even a bottle of Ripple cost you more than $2.83… especially adjusted for inflation.

Yet I suppose the simple fact is that no one here in France knows the difference… they still have a patisserie, a boulangerie, a bucherie, a fromagerie on virtually every block.

We would call them specialty shops in the U.S. … here they are not very special at all.

Times may be changing a bit though… I notice more Starbucks and more golden arches here in Paris… Is this simply to make the Yanks feel more at ease?

One would hope.

On that note… looks like French imports to the U.S. have taken a pounding along with all other forms of consumption.

Exports to France have held up a bit better… but as you can see… it's still pretty early in a declining trend that will likely take a few years to bottom out.

Today Post::S&P/Case-Shiller: May 2009

NOTE: Data delayed by a boat ride up the Seine, a leisurely sitting in the park by Pont Neuf and a stroll up the Champs Elysees.

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for May 2009 showed the first month-to-month gain in 34 months (almost 3 years!).

Clearly this is a notable development but it's important to put today's results in perspective before getting too confident that even the initial leg of the declining trend has ceased.

First, it's important to recognize that while many of the more seasonal series (Boston, Cleveland, Washington DC, etc.) are showing typical strong spring-summer bounces, many of the hardest hit markets (Phoenix, Los Angeles, Miami, etc)… markets with almost no seasonal variation, are showing only tepid declines.

Further, many of the more seasonal markets, at the moment, are some of the weakest and appear poised (after the typical spring-summer bounce completes August and September) to drop to new lows throughout the fall.

So, today's Composite results are being, in a sense, propped up by the collective movement of many strong seasonal markets that are themselves actually very weak but are currently at their strongest point in the season.

Another way of looking at it is to simply view the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller data showing both Composite series declining since last month.

Also, looking at the 90s0-era comparison charts below its obvious that even after the main downward thrust has been reached, the housing markets have a long tough slog ahead with the ultimate bottom likely many years out…. Or if we are currently experiencing the Japanese model… decades out.

Further, is important to remember that the 90s housing recovery played out against the backdrop of a truly unique period of growth in the wider economy fueled primarily by novel and ubiquitous technological change (cell phones, internet, personal computers, telecommunications, etc).

The 10-city composite index declined 16.83% as compared to May 2008 while the 20-city composite declined 17.06% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners were Phoenix at -54.46%, Las Vegas at -53.36%, Miami at -48.52%, San Francisco at -44.97%, Detroit at -44.86%, San Diego at -42.05%, Los Angeles at -41.89%, Tampa at -41.05%, Minneapolis at -35.85%, Washington DC at -32.49%, Chicago at -26.64%, Seattle at -22.55%, Atlanta at -22.55%, Seattle at -22.54%, Portland at -21.20%, New York at -21.00% and Boston at -18.46%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed significant declines slumping -33.27% for the 10-city national index and 32.29% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize the results use Blytic.com or the PaperEconomy S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool as well as the PaperEconomy Home Value Calculator.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a year-over-year and month-to-month basis.


Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my "then and now" CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.

To create the following annual charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data with side-by-side columns (click for larger version).

What's most interesting about this particular comparison is that it highlights both how young the current housing decline is and clearly shows that the latest bust has surpassed the prior bust in terms of intensity.

Looking at the actual index values normalized and compared from the respective peaks, you can see that we are still likely less than half of the way through the portion of the decline in which will be seen fairly significant annual declines (click the following chart for larger version).

The "peak" chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.


In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As you can see the last downturn lasted 97 months (over 8 years) peak to peak including roughly 43 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn.

Today Post::I have a question for Senator Grassley

Does he really believe that all the white guys he has voted for “set aside [their] personal preferences and prejudices?”

28 Temmuz 2009 Salı

Today Post::I was on Bloomberg TV today

I have to admit it is fun. The clip is at http://tinyurl.com/GreenHousing.